The middle east post npt agreement at the height of the cold war, the two superpowers, the united states and the soviet union, had an estimated combined arsenal of 30,000 nuclear weapons. Nuclear disarmament is the process of reducing and eradicating nuclear weapons, as well as ensuring that countries without nuclear weapons are not able to develop them. Israel is not a member of the treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, and parts of. Proliferation has been opposed by many nations with and without nuclear weapons, as. Of course, the best is to dissuade iran from going nuclear in the first place. Pdf the threat of nuclear proliferation in east asia.
One thing israel should do is state that, in the context of a comprehensive and durable peace in the middle east, it is prepared to give up its nuclear option as long as others in the region, including iran, do the same. Khan, which although fortunately now defunct provided fissile material production technology and nuclear weaponsrelated design information to both libya and iran, help underscore the dangers of proliferation in the middle east. Nuclear proliferation in the middle e ast iii should iran acquire a nuclear capability, intense pressure among some other states in the region to pursue nuclear weapons will likely emerge. Iran is seeking to increase its power in the middle east while america is seeking to maintain its own power in the region while simultaneously containing irans regional ambitions. This report provides an assessment of key security issues that may emerge in the event iran acquires a nuclear capability, to include.
China has a leading role to play in proliferation prevention and doing so is in the countrys national interest. For much of the past decade, the conversation on nuclear proliferation in the middle east played out against a gloomy set of assumptions. Nuclear proliferation in the middle east iran intelligence. Israel is the middle easts principal nuclear power, though it has never officially acknowledged possession of nuclear weapons. A proliferation cascade in the middle east is not a foregone conclusion. Leaving aside israel, none has succeeded in acquiring nuclear weaponsat least so far. Preventing nuclear proliferation in the middle east. Proliferation of nuclear weapons in the middle east. Israel is widely believed to possess weapons of mass destruction, and to be one of four nucleararmed countries not recognized as a nuclear weapons state by the nonproliferation treaty npt. Nuclear proliferation pdf carnegie council for ethics in. The united states and iran have been in conflict since the iranian revolution. Nuclear proliferationmiddle east nuclear proliferationmiddle east imprint new york. Special assistant for nuclear proliferation intelligence subject.
The use of land power to counter the iranian nuclear. In november 2014, the united nations general assembly sought to counter the risk of nuclear proliferation in the middle east with a resolution recognizing that this would pose a serious. Given their overwhelming destructive power, weapons of mass destruction wmd have been particularly attractive. Steps towards the establishment of such a zone began in the 1960s led to a joint declaration by egypt and iran in 1974 which resulted in a general assembly resolution broadened in 1990 through the mubarak initiative to cover all weapons of mass destruction. Nuclear proliferation is the spread of nuclear weapons, fissionable material, and weaponsapplicable nuclear technology and information to nations not recognized as nuclear weapon states by the treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, commonly known as the nonproliferation treaty or npt. Weapons of mass destruction in the middle east and north africa iai.
The cases of israel and india a thesis submitted by kareem mahmoud kamel to the department of political science may2000 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of master of. These middle east nations are increasingly apprehensive about the threat of a nuclear iran and the failure of the international community to take decisive actions to prevent tehran. Isbn 9785953503860 nuclear nonproliferation in the middle east context this is the twelfth publication of the series titled the prospect of. The west is focusing on iran, but israel would have to play ball, too. The npt conference is breathing new life into a 15yearold proposal to create a nuclear weapons free middle east. According to a 20 report by us experts, israels nuclear arsenal includes 80 nuclear warheads, with enough fissile material potentially to double that number. One was that iran could not be trusted as an honest negotiating partner at nuclear talks due to its recent record of covert development. The middle east may present the greatest threat of nuclear proliferation in the world today. Of particular interest is van dorens argument concerning preemptive strikes. Much of the debate over proliferation focuses on the possession of nuclear weapons rather than their use in warfighting and their effects.
Articles iv and vi of the nonproliferation treaty npt, which define rights and obligations with respect to peaceful use of nuclear energy and nuclear weapons. In the foreseeable future, israels anonymous nuclear arsenal will remain an essential component of the military and strategic balance in the region, a significant bone of contention in tel avivs relations with other states in the region and the factor. Pdf on jul 16, 2012, derek bolton and others published the threat of nuclear proliferation in east asia find, read and cite all the research you need on researchgate. Chinas proliferation practices and its role in the north korea nuclear crisis daniel a pinkston. As regional violence mounts and the region appears increasingly volatile, particular attention is being paid to the potential for the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the middle east. The dangers of an iran getting nuclear weapons that then leads to a freeforall in the middle east is something that i think would be very dangerous for the world. D e fi n i ti o n o f k e y t e r ms nu c l e a r w e a p o n a weapon, usually in the form of a bomb or missile, that explodes when a nuclear reaction. Recent events in libya have already had a significant effect on the region and beyond, and perhaps one of the most compelling results has been the potential impact on regional powers for the future course of nuclear proliferation. Enthusiasm for nuclear energy is on the rise worldwide. Use of land power to counter the iranian nuclear proliferation challenge 2007. The movement to denuclearize hopes to eliminate the possibility of nuclear war because of its potential for catastrophic consequences, as demonstrated by the united states. Pdf a nuclear weapons free zone in the middle east.
Curbing nuclear proliferation in the middle east arms. In late 1956, france and britain had agreed with israel to launch a war against egypt to provide the. Libyas nuclear disarmament experience has provided lessons learned for those states who have themselves acquired. Isbn 9785953503860 nuclear non proliferation in the middle east context this is the twelfth publication of the series titled the prospect of. In assessing the probability of proliferation in the middle east, it is necessary to focus on how these various factors may affect nuclear decisionmaking in individual countries, especially in. Letters addressed to the secretarygeneral confirming support for declaring the middle east a region free from weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. Without advancing nuclearweaponfree middle east, recasting norm against nuclear weapons possession, nonproliferation treaty will come. There are an estimated 23,000 nuclear weapons in the world today, 22,000 of them belonging to the united states and russia. Strengthen the regional nonproliferation regime 22 demonstrate u. After two decades of disappointing growth, industry leaders are forecasting a nuclear renaissance. Iaea 2005, communication dated 12 september 2005 from the. Van doren paper on proliferation in the middle east passed the attached paper on the subject to me.
Another held that irans pursuit of a nuclear weapon posed a major. Declare a new regional security doctrine 21 recommendation 8. The risk of nuclear proliferation in the middle east. Nuclear nonproliferation in the middle east context part 1. The idea of a rapid proliferation of nuclear weapons in the middle east is just the latest manifestation of an earlier domino theory, cold war visual imagery of red paint oozing over the globe. Innorth korean military proliferation in the middle east and africa, bruce e.
The middle east and north africa mena is both the source of concern about. Document summary with proliferation becoming a greater threat to us interests over the next five years, intelligence analysts believed that the disruptive aspect of the proliferation phenomenon will constitute the greater threat to the united states. A still relevant analysis made by a congressional committee in february 2008, entitled chain reaction. Titlethe risk of nuclear proliferation in the middle east. The middle east nuclear weapon free zone menwfz is a proposed agreement similar to other nuclearweaponfree zones. The us congress office of technology assessment has recorded israel as a country generally reported as having undeclared chemical warfare capabilities, and an offensive biological warfare program. International peace and director of its nuclear nonproliferation project. Disec preventing proliferation of nuclear weapons in the. Middle east quarterly, american enterprise institute, 01 april 2005. Nuclear proliferation remains one of the most pressing and important issues in international politics and security. Adherence to the npt is not universal, and a few countries that are parties to the npt have violated their treaty obligations. Arms trade and proliferation chinese military power. International concern for the proliferation of nuclear weapons has continued to mount.
Nuclear energy and proliferation in the middle east robert einhorn ore countries have pursued a nuclear weapon capability in the middle east than in any other region. To print a pdf, you must first download the file and open it in a pdf viewer. This was especially true in the case of nuclear weapons, which. Nuclear energy and proliferation in the middle east. The criminality of the kim regime goes beyond its threatening the asia pacific region and the world with nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles or brutalizing its own people. Predictions of a nuclear renaissance envision a doubling or tripling of nuclear capacity by 2050, spreading nuclear power to new markets in the middle east and southeast asia, and.
A nuclear weapon free zone nwfz in the middle east was first proposed in the. Nuclear nonproliferation in the middle east the national. Nuclear proliferation in the middle east and south asia. In addition, revelations about the existence of an illicit nuclear proliferation network run by a. Nuclear non proliferation in the middle east context ed. A wmdfree zone in the middle east belfer center for science and. Agenda information a71251 101 the risk of nuclear proliferation in the middle east. Today, nine states have nuclear weapons and many more can easily acquire those, although only five states are officially recognized as possessing nuclear weapons by the 1968 nuclear nonproliferation treaty npt.
Commission on nuclear non proliferation and disarmament, but reflects the views of the author and should not be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of the commission. Steps toward a middle east zone free of nuclear international. Khan nuclear proliferation network, swapping missiles for nuclear technology. Managing nuclear proliferation in the middle east brookings. It contains one state assumed to possess nuclear weapons, several states that tried and failed to develop a military nuclear capability, one state under suspicion of trying to. Egypt, iran, iraq, israel, libya, and saudi arabia.
If the region is host to a shiapersian bomb and a jewishisraeli bomb. North korean military proliferation in the middle east and africa sheds light on an entirely new dimension of the security threats posed by north korea. These are the underlying questions in gawdat bahgats intriguing new study of nuclear proliferation in six key middle east countries. Japan, south korea, and egypt policy recommendations. Hence, the importance of limiting the proliferation of nuclear in the weapons in the middle east is vital to its safety.
The israeli perspective shlomo ben ami september 2009 presented to the regional meeting cairo, 2930. Agenda information a74251 101 the risk of nuclear proliferation in the middle east. Adroit policy choices and practices by the obama administration can build a bulwark against a middle east nuclear tipping phenomenon. Iran, israel, and the effects of nuclear conflict in the middle east. With the destruction of the syrian reactor, the only middle eastern country aside from israel within reach of developing a nuclear weapons capability is iran. History is a grim warning, however, that deterrence does not always work and rational bargaining often fails. Iran, israel, and the effects of nuclear conflict in the. The notion of a middle east nuclear weapon free zone, or a weap. In may 2010, the members of the nuclear nonproliferation treaty npt.
Pullback from middle east will fuel proliferation of. If detonated, these weapons would cause the equivalent of about 150,00 hiroshima bombs. Missile and wmd proliferation in the middle east were initially generated late in the 1950s as a response to the suez crisis and israels plans to build an independent nuclear and missile arsenal. Instead, people fear nuclear armageddon, and the power of the atom is becoming synonymous with death and destruction. But in spite of these difficulties, we want to reaffirm our. He traces illicit networks that lead to state and nonstate actors in the. While a nuclear iran will prompt a regional nuclear arms raceindeed it already has begun none of the arab states has a capability to develop an. A nuclear weapon free zone in the middle east download. North korean military proliferation in the middle east and. Bahgat looks at the economic and political forces that shape this threat to world peace and at the prospectslargely unrealistic, he saysof establishing a. Nuclear proliferation in the middle east center for. Nonproliferation strategy for the changing middle east. Avoiding a nuclear arms race in the middle east, concluded that, an iranian nuclear weapon frightens the saudis to their core, and would compel the saudis to seek nuclear weapons. Pullback from middle east will fuel proliferation of nuclear weapons experts say obama policies not working al qaeda militants in the aljazeera region on the iraqi side of the syriairaq border.
696 1408 157 448 910 1120 39 964 991 476 590 1373 1290 771 1033 1131 680 920 400 884 324 1325 200 952 469 535 804 52